Sunday, January 18, 2015

Deafening Clamor for 2015 Election Postponement in Nigeria
by AYO ESAN on Jan 18, 2015
Nigerian National Accord

With less than a month to the February 2015 general elections, many prominent Nigerians are now calling for the postponement. Though the call was made by some individuals recently, as we move closer to the D-day, the clamour for the postponement is gathering more proponents.

Last Sunday, the National Publicity Secretary of the main opposition party, the All Progressives Congress, APC, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, also raised worries that there are plans to postpone the elections. He alleged that the invasion of its Data Centre by the Department of State Security (DSS) was a plot by the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to postpone next month’s general election.

Mohammed, who maintained that the APC was not planning to clone any permanent voter card (PVC) as alleged by the DSS insisted that the summary report released by the organisation on the invasion of the centre was a hogwash. He also described the summary report released by the DSS as an embarrassment to all intelligence-gathering organisations around the world, adding that APC would like to tell Nigerians that the DSS finding was part of the ongoing efforts by the Goodluck Jonathan-led administration to postpone next month’s general election.

According to him, the DSS, which, it said, was working in collaboration with the PDP, had embarked on the venture having seen the handwriting on the wall vis-a-vis the growing rejection of the PDP by Nigerians.

“We will like to tell all Nigerians that the crap called ‘findings’ is part of the ongoing efforts by the Jonathan administration to postpone next month’s general election. Having seen the handwriting on the wall vis-a-vis the growing rejection of the PDP by Nigerians, the Jonathan administration has gone into a panic mode, while embarking on a plan to postpone the elections.

“Apparently, the thinking at the DSS, which is working in cahoots with the PDP, is that its report that the APC plans to hack into the voter registration data base of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) will raise doubts about the integrity of the voters’ register to be used for the forthcoming polls, and subsequently force a postponement of the elections since the existing register cannot be used for the polls,” he said.

“Before you say our claim is outlandish, remember that some prominent Nigerians have publicly called for the postponement of the election – which can only benefit the Jonathan-led administration and delay its impending waterloo at the polls. Place the calls side by side with the apparently doctored outcome of the DSS investigations and the timing of the report’s release, and you will understand where they are coming from.”

Alhaji Mohammed insisted that the findings by the DSS could not stand the test of time and serious scrutiny by independent investigators because the DSS worked backwards, from answer to question, in an effort to reach a pre-determined conclusion.

Political observers believe that an election can only be postponed, according to the country’s constitution, if there is an outbreak of war. Section 135(3) of the 1999 Constitution provides as follows:

If the Federation is at war in which the territory of Nigeria is physically involved and the President considers that it is not practicable to hold elections, the National Assembly may by resolution extend the period of four years mentioned in subsection (2) of this section from time to time; but no such extension shall exceed a period of six months at any one time.

Yet, proponents of the postponement have different reasons for their positions.

A chieftain of the pan-Yoruba socio-cultural group, Afenifere, Chief Ayo Adebanjo, who called for the postponement said holding election under the 1999 Constitution, which has received wide condemnation, will not do the country any good. According to him, it was needless to hold elections under the old constitution since the country through the constitutional conference had been provided with a new constitution.

“I hold the strong view that it is fruitless to hold an election under the old constitution that we have all condemned. Everybody has been saying this is a military constitution. The Electoral Law is under the military-based constitution. We are going to hold another election starting a new century under a constitution that we all condemned, when we have already made another constitution. If we are sincere, the new constitution we have made took care of many ills in the old constitution. The awkwardness of the federation we corrected, making it really a federal constitution,” he said.

Adebanjo noted that since the national conference had corrected a lot of things in the old constitution, the country should wait for a fresh constitution before holding another election.  He  said President Jonathan had promised during the  Independence anniversary  and recently when he met a gathering at Ile-Ife that the report of the National Conference would be implemented and wondered why we are not waiting for the inclusion of the decisions of the National Conference before going for another election

In the interim, he has advocated that the country should have a caretaker government that would be led by the incumbent before the conduct of a new election. Such a government, he postulated, would afford the country the opportunity of implementing the resolutions of the national confab.

Speaking with ‘Sunday Mirror’ in Lagos, Adebanjo said there was the need to give room for President Jonathan to implement the resolutions of the National Constitutional Conference, which he had pledged to implement before the country could go for any new election, saying having a caretaker committee for a year would not be a bad idea.

“Why I say he (Jonathan) should implement the new constitution is because the opposition doesn’t believe in the new constitution. They were opposed to the confab and resolution of the confab is opposed to by the leading members of the APC. We are being realistic. He convoked it, let him implement it. Let us ensure that it is not going to be business as usual. After sitting for three months at the national confab,  we now go and hold election under the old constitution, then when will the new constitution come to effect or those who have been elected would say ‘let us use our own term before we begin the implementation of the confab. Why don’t we have an emergency or caretaker government or whatever it is, maybe for a year or six months,” he advocated.

“I am giving you my own idea but my idea is not sacrosanct. That is how I am thinking aloud. To me, if it will warrant the extension of tenure of Jonathan for six or nine months to get these things established, no problem. It is a sacrifice that worth it. Whether you say it is an extension or whatever, you must have a Nigeria before you rule it.”

Adebanjo argued that the resolutions of the national confab would solve some fundamental problems confronting the country, adding, “for instance, no  governor can now say  there is a caretaker committee in any local government; that has been abolished, the local government has been liberated.”

To the Pastor of the Latter Rain Church and former vice-presidential candidate of the defunct Congress For Progressive Change, CPC, Tunde Bakare, there is  the urgent need to postpone the February 2015 general elections to avoid what he called ‘gathering storms’, which may lead the country to a catastrophic end.

Speaking  on what he called, ‘The gathering storm and avoidable shipwreck: How to avoid catastrophic Euroclydon’  recently, Pastor Bakare said to avoid the gathering storms, the government must activate  the constitutional provisions for the suspension of elections, saying Section 135(3) of the 1999 Constitution provides that if the Federation is at war, the election can be postponed.                                                                                                                                                                                   He explained that the nation is already at war, insisting that if indeed the country is not at war, how can one explain the invasion and annexation of Nigerian territories by insurgents launching attacks from our borders and neighbouring countries?

“Let us not forget that on May 14, 2013, while declaring a state of emergency in three states, President Goodluck Jonathan said of the activities of terrorists: “These actions amount to a declaration of war and a deliberate attempt to undermine the authority of the Nigerian state and threaten its territorial integrity. As a responsible government, we will not tolerate this.

“Records indicate that since that declaration, the situation has only worsened. Therefore, if the country was at war then, according to the President, it is even more so now,” he argued.

I do recognise the fact that opinions are divided on whether or not the Boko Haram plague can be described as war or just an act of insurgency. Truth be told, this is mere semantics. As Aesop said, ‘the injury we do and the one we suffer are not weighed in the same scales’. Depending on which side of the divide one belongs, the difference between war and insurgency can be likened to the difference between terrorists and freedom fighters. One man’s meat is another man’s poison, just as one man’s music is another man’s noise. Those that are condemned as ‘terrorists’ by one group are hailed as ‘freedom fighters’ by another. Therefore, I submit that if the President considers that a part of the federation will be disenfranchised by reason of the Boko Haram plague, a postponement of the election may not be out of place. In my view, the litmus test to arrive at the type of war contemplated by the constitution is the practicality of getting people in the affected states to line up to vote for candidates of their choice in situations where they cannot predict.”

Bakare also advised that the country should create a Transitional Government, saying, “In suspending the elections, to gain the support of all stakeholders, the President must not act with the intention to seek re-election. Rather, he should, within the period, commit himself to building a non-partisan coalition comprising major stakeholders and competent statesmen from each geopolitical zone. This coalition, headed by the President, will constitute a combined force that will tackle terrorism and address what I have earlier referred to as the fundamentals, within a time frame of two years or less,” he advocated.

Bakare also said the country must address the fundamentals which he said calls for immediate implementation  of the report, or part thereof, of the 2014 National Conference, especially as it relates to: “restructuring with a view to achieving true federalism under Zonal Commissions as well as fiscal federalism ensuring, as proposed by the report of the National Conference, that adequate allocation is given to a Solid Minerals Development Fund in addition to other recommendations geared towards economic diversification; achieving national reconciliation and integration by adopting, constitutionalising and propagating the National Charter for Reconciliation and Integration; conduct accurate census ,which will lay the foundation for a sound identity management scheme, facilitate effective and efficient local government administration, provide the basis for proper constituency delineation and enable the conduct of well-organised voter registration exercises”.

He also called for the establishment of a “truly independent electoral body whose head will no longer be appointed by the President and whose funding will be drawn from first line charge on the Federation Account and this will guarantee the conduct of free, fair and credible elections”.

Bakare warned that if Nigeria sails into general elections at this time without fixing the fundamentals, no matter what precaution is taken by the helmsman and the owner of the ship, once the ship sets sail from Fair Havens, an encounter with Euroclydon would be inevitable. He gave the signs of gathering storm to include, poor level of election preparedness; safety and security risks; likely Minority king-making; looming constitutional and legal crisis and  looming economic collapse

Most political analysts and watchers of political events though may not be seeking postponement of the polls but they fear that INEC is not prepared to conduct a free and fair election in the country.

Their pessimism arose out of the way the body has handled the issue of distribution of the permanent voter cards, which it begun recently. They feel that if INEC finds it difficult to distribute PVCs, how can it convince Nigerians that it can handle a proper and well conducted general election.

Also, the spate of insecurity in the North-East is another issue that makes the conduct of the election Herculean. For instance, just last week on the first day the distribution of PVCs started  in Maiduguri, the Borno State capital, not less than 20 people were killed by insurgents. Despite this situation, however, many other Nigerians also felt that the election must go on.

First, the governors of the North-East states of Adamawa, Borno and Yobe were of the view that if elections could be held recently in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan and other war-torn places, that of the North-East could not be an exception.

Yobe State Governor, Alhaji Ibrahim Geidam, said  they only need more troop deployment t in the three states. He said the troops on ground in the affected states were not enough to handle the security situation.

The Northern Elders Forum, NEF, has vowed to resist any design to prevent the expression of popular will in the February general elections under whatever guise or excuse. The forum said such a move would also be rejected and resisted by all Nigerians and stood against the call from some sections of the country that the February elections be postponed due to insecurity. NEF, at a press conference in Kaduna, said postponing the election would give a resounding victory to the insurgents. It took exception to the sentiments being canvassed by anti-democratic forces that an unconstitutional interim national government or a similar illegal arrangement should be put in place to stop the forthcoming polls.

“We want to warn that any design to prevent the expression of popular will in February under whatever guise or excuse will be rejected and resisted by all Nigerians. We fully support the ongoing efforts to eliminate all kinds of threats, including the Boko Haram insurgency. The Forum wishes to remind the nation that any effort to postpone the elections, limit its scope or truncate the democratic process, will be a resounding victory for Boko Haram. Only enemies of the Nigerian people, worse than Boko Haram insurgents, will wish this on our people.

“The February elections must hold under the most secure and peaceful conditions, and we have no doubt that the administration of President Jonathan is in a position to guarantee this, if it wishes. We, therefore, urge the President to rise to the occasion and prove to Nigerians and the world that he can provide the necessary and enabling environment to conduct credible elections. We expect him to openly and unequivocally condemn any sentiment or effort to truncate the political and electoral process.

Correspondingly, National Coordinator of the pan-Yoruba group, Oodua Peoples Congress, OPC, Otunba Gani Adams, said the election  must hold as scheduled. Speaking with Sunday Mirror, Adams said: “Pa Ayo Adebanjo is a well-respected Yoruba leader and an elder statesman with strong background in Nigerian politics. This is somebody who has been in politics since the 1950s. At the same time, he is a man who will not compromise his ideology and principles. I respect him and Chief Olaniwun Ajayi for their contribution at the last national conference. For him to say the election should be postponed and we should have an interim government and produce a brand new constitution before the next election, he has his own reason. But for me as a young blood in the Nigerian system, I believe that if we canvass for that, anything can happen. If we don’t hold election in February, this may give the military a chance to strike. It may also create confusion. The opposition would harp on that and condemn the government that it is afraid of the election. They will say because the government of Jonathan fears it will lose the election; that is why it is selling the idea to the public. If the idea has come a long time before now, it would have been better. We have to be careful. I read about someone suggesting an interim government. I think we don’t need an interim government now, let the election hold, whoever becomes the president has no choice than to implement 90 to 99 per cent of the recommendations of the national conference. This is because most of the recommendations of the conference are revolutionary.

Also speaking on the issue, National Coordinator, Rights Monitoring Group (RMG) and Country Director, Centre on Convention for Democratic Integrity CCDI, Mr Femi Aduwo, said it is not possible for the election to be postponed. Postponing next month’s election is uncalled for, he said

He explained that though he was not a lawyer, the constitution said election can only be postponed if there was war. According to him, there is no war in the country to warrant postponing the elections.

Aduwo, who has been an international elections observer said: “There is no war in the country and therefore there is no need to postpone elections. Insurgency is not war. Elections hold in Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan where there are insurgencies. The constitution is referring to civil war or war with a known country as a situation that may lead to the postponement of election,” he insisted.

Governorship candidate of Kowa in Oyo State, Mr. Olaide Olayiwola, said there was no need for the postponement of the election, insisting that any rescheduling may cause confusion in the polity.

Whatever it will take, he urged, the elections should hold as scheduled.

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